Day to day: finding apps that already hold funded users, working out what it takes to integrate them, and how the terms should be structured. I write about the sector in public, and I track every deal that closes.
Every closed deal shares one pattern: users who already stake money, a funded balance, and no new behaviour to teach. Below are the ones that signed — and the ones that fit the same profile and haven't yet.
// BUILT, IDLE = INTEGRATION SHIPPED AND NEVER ACTIVATED — THE SHORTEST PATH TO VOLUME //
Sleeper Markets secured NFA approval as a Futures Commission Merchant, then launched in-app markets to 10M users two days before the Super Bowl.
The strategic read: Mansour said Kalshi was “the biggest brand of the Super Bowl without running a Super Bowl ad.” That is the whole argument for distribution over marketing, stated by the winner.
Players’ Lounge holds no CFTC or NFA registration. Customers open accounts directly with ProphetX, which carries onboarding, KYC, execution and settlement. Weeks to launch instead of months.
The strategic read: no cash changed hands at signature. The property risked nothing and gained a revenue line; the exchange paid only out of volume it received. That alignment is why these close in weeks rather than quarters — and why the model will be copied.
Structure, distribution, and the plumbing underneath — from partner-program fee mechanics to what each exchange actually exposes through its API.
I'm most useful to exchanges that have a licence and need flow, and to platforms sitting on funded users with no idea the category exists. Happy to share what I've mapped either way.
David Wu · Los Angeles · Writing on prediction market structure since 2026